Giving Tuesday 2024 is gonna be a wild ride.

In 2023, we said Giving Tuesday would be "inspiring".

In 2022, we predicted that Giving Tuesday 2022 would be "epic". And we were right—with a 15% increase over 2021's haul, the tenth year of Giving Tuesday brought in billions for worthy causes worldwide.

This year, we're in uncharted waters. The big news is that overall giving is down (especially adjusted for inflation) and there are more natural disasters and urgent needs than ever, meaning there's a constant ask in the air for donors everywhere. Add in a record for elections across the globe—including the United States' roller-coaster election cycle... and the amount of upheaval and need is affecting our climate of giving in unprecedented ways. 

But listen, we know how much work you and your nonprofit's team of unicorns are putting into your Giving Tuesday 2024 strategy. You're writing the emails; you're prepping your ask comms; you're organizing your volunteers.

And we believe that at the end of the (giving) day, all of us will be surprised and inspired by the ways our global community shows up to support on Giving Tuesday, December 3, 2024.

$3.5 Billion. (yes, with a "B".)

If you're wondering what that massive number is doing there, sitting smack-dab in the middle of your screen, we're here to inform you that that is Whole Whale's prediction regarding the online amount to be raised this December 3rd, aka Giving Tuesday 2024.

How'd they come up with that number, anyway?

Whole Whale used "a combination of linear regression, trends in Google Search terms around “Giving Tuesday,” and national giving trends" to land on $3.5B—which, bee tee dubs, happens to be an 11% increase over the amount raised online on Giving Tuesday 2023 ($3.12B.) The adjusted linear regression took into account last year's record-breaking haul, historical trends as to the growth of Giving Tuesday year over year, Google search trends, and the current economic and societal pressures on donors.

“So what does this mean for my nonprofit's ability to fundraise on Giving Tuesday 2024 and our yearly budget?”

Well, first things first. Let's establish that this is a prediction, not a certainty. We think it's a pretty darn good prediction based upon the mathematics behind Whole Whale's reasoning, plus they have a great track record. But we're not Nostradamus, and even if we were, he was wrong a lot of the time, so let's not put all of our faith in possibly-fictional characters from the ancient past.

BUT. If you're trying to predict your own Giving Tuesday fundraising total—and if you're reading this article, we think it's quite likely you're trying to do that—here are some factors to take into account.

The Economic Situation

All eyes are on ol' Jerome and the Federal Reserve. Despite one reduction in interest rates and the anticipation of another very soon, the economy is still recovering from white-hot inflation of recent years. Not only that, but unemployment isn't as low as anyone would like, the job market is super weird, and regular people (and our pocketbooks) have yet to feel any sort of relief.

Soooo...check in with your donors! See how they're doing. If everyone's splashing out for luxuries like gas, milk, and housing, well, this might not be your best Giving Tuesday ever. But if your donor base is holding steady with employment and community, this could be a very good year indeed.

Student Loan Payments

After the initial pandemic years, nonprofits are now competing with student loans once again, despite efforts to relieve borrowers, so donors may be focused elsewhere.

Tap into that sense of investment prior to Giving Tuesday—folks that have invested in their own future may relate to the idea of building a better world for the next generation. Give them a guarantee that their donation will do some real good this Giving Tuesday—when it comes to investments, a sure thing is hard to pass up.

THE ELECTION

Y'all. This year, the year of elections all over, everywhere, is sucking up money like whoa. Not only are the different people at all levels of government all screaming for money, drowning your message out, every form of communication is chock full of information and asks and predictions and warnings. Email, text messaging, ads, social media, news media, etc.

And with Giving Tuesday coming just weeks after voting ends but before the winner is confirmed by the United States Senate, who knows if donors will even hear your appeals.

Looking Back

2024 marks the 12th anniversary of Giving Tuesday—meaning that many nonprofiteers remember that first year we tried this wacky idea. But do you remember how much was raised on Giving Tuesday 2012? An adorable $12 million. (Yes, with an "m".)

And now, a little over a decade later, we're looking at an inspiring prediction of $3.45 BILLION.

A Generosity Tsunami

Giving Tuesday totals may have crept up on you. $3.5B may feel too big to make sense of. So let's look back for a frame of reference: pulling each Giving Tuesday's totals, pre-pandemic growth was minimum 44% each year. Every year from 2012 to 2019, Giving Tuesday grew at least 44% year-over-year. From 2019 to 2021, growth was 37%. And even these last few years... despite their difficulties, Giving Tuesday growth has outpaced inflation, growing 13% in 2021 and 15% in 2022.

This is an amazing, incredible, mind-boggling amplification of generosity—and it's ongoing.

2023 was the second year of Giving Tuesday that we missed our mark, raising "only" $3.12B, a mere 0.6% increase over 2022. When adjusted for inflation, that means the money raised in 2023 had less spending power. Not only that, but overall donor engagement was down by 10%. Bummer.

Put it into perspective

We all know what a nonprofit unicorn is, but in the for-profit world, the term has a much different meaning. A unicorn company is a company that has attained a $1B valuation. These are often huge, household name companies, like Spotify, Tesla, Facebook, Airbnb... you get the picture. If Giving Tuesday were a for-profit company, it would easily be a unicorn as well—and with just one day each year of tracked revenue generation.

The average time it takes unicorns to attain that magical $1B valuation? 7 years. So, how long did it take Giving Tuesday to break the Big B? 7 years. That's faster than Eventbrite, Glassdoor, FitBit, BuzzFeed, Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, SpaceX, and lots more.

How much time have you spent promoting Giving Tuesday?

Giving Tuesday takes work, nonprofit unicorns! The more time you spend planning your and—even better—putting that strategy into action, the better your Giving Tuesday results are likely to be. If your Giving Tuesday efforts are limited to a single post on social media, you might not do that well.

Buuuut if you email, text, call, post, promote, and push Giving Tuesday like it's a rock up a hill and you're Sisyphus, you're likely to raise far more—and that's money you can use all year, not just on Giving Tuesday.

Here’s a pro-tip: if you don’t have the time and/or resources to plan a Giving Tuesday strategy all by your lonesome, download Funraise’s handy dandy Giving Tuesday Toolkit!

Look at your trends

Has your nonprofit raised more money each year on Giving Tuesday than the last? That's a sign you'll raise the bar this year, too. Look at historical trends when predicting your Giving Tuesday raise. That'll help you predict what might be in store for this year.

Lean into overall trends

Word on the street is that monthly giving is the key to greater retention, which is proving to be the key to mitigating reduced giving. In fact, forget monthly giving... incremental giving of all kinds is up. Visits to nonprofit websites through mobile devices are up. AI is everywhere; we're basically breathing it in. Interest rates are down and the stock market is bullish. With so much incredible wealth being held in stocks, DAFs, and crypto—and the tax benefits of asset-based donating—it makes sense to hit non-cash donations.

Last word

None of us can see the future, so it's impossible to predict with absolute certainty what's going to happen this Giving Tuesday. However, with a few data points, you can make a pretty darn good guess—and we think our friends over at Whole Whale did just that. If you're still nervous about Giving Tuesday 2024, download Funraise's toolkit and start planning... we predict you'll love it.